PTA of the hottest suwu futures is expected to con

2022-09-22
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Su Wu Futures: PTA is expected to continue to operate at a high level

I. Market Review

PTA in Zhengzhou rose strongly this week, and the spot market also rose sharply

the main contract ta809 closed at 9298, up 450 from last week. The trading volume and position are significantly enlarged. At present, the total positions of the top 20 are slightly more than empty orders, with 936 and 6212 more than last weekend respectively

in terms of spot goods, according to the China National fiber price index, PTA prices rose 500 to 9250 yuan/ton this week; The tear test of the upstream cost following the electronic universal testing machine is to calculate that the tear strength value continues to rise. On June 5, the closing price of CFR Taiwan/China paraxylene (PX) was 1534 5 dollars, up 45 dollars/ton from last weekend; The prices of downstream products continued to maintain a stable trend of follow-up. This week, polyester staple fiber rose 230 yuan to 11380 yuan/ton, and filament chips rose 150 yuan to 11100 yuan/ton

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II. Market analysis

(I) positive factors:

1. Polyester staple and filament prices continue to rise, and the market for polyester chips with good flexibility is temporarily stable

at present, the polyester market continues to rise, most manufacturers have no inventory pressure, and the attitude of raising prices and transferring costs is still firm

2. PTA inventory in Zhengzhou continued to decrease. As of June 6, Zhengzhou warehouse receipts decreased by 1878 to 16636 compared with last week, and there was basically no inventory pressure

(II) negative factors:

1. The price difference between PTA and cotton continues to narrow, which will put pressure on PTA upward. On June 6, the price difference between polyester short and ccindex (328) was 2468 yuan, less than 2695 yuan last week and 2818 yuan the previous week

2. PTA units in some petrochemical enterprises will resume operation

according to China chemical fiber information, PTA units shut down by Yisheng petrochemical in the early stage have recently resumed operation, and a set of PTA units of Hualian Sanxin also have plans to resume operation in the near future. BP Zhuhai 900000 ton PTA plant has resumed operation at the beginning of this month; Xianglu Petrochemical's 1.5 million ton PTA plant will be overhauled in the later stage; Jinshan Petrochemical and Luoyang Petrochemical in the Sinopec system resumed their start-up. At present, the domestic PTA operating load is 75% or higher

3. MEG (ethylene glycol) strength increases the pressure on polyester enterprises

due to the strength of crude oil in the early stage and the domestic petrochemical enterprises began to limit production and maintain oil this week, MEG has recently strengthened, rising 600 yuan to 9650 yuan/ton this week. The stability of MEG has increased the pressure on polyester enterprises, which also puts pressure on the demand for PTA

III. outlook

on the whole, PTA spot market has maintained a strong upward trend recently because PTA suppliers maintain a low start-up rate, downstream polyester enterprises have a high operating rate, PX suppliers have a tough attitude, and downstream polyester continues to maintain a stable rising trend. However, the strengthening of MEG and the narrowing of the price difference between PTA and cotton will inhibit the upward space of PTA. In addition, the price acceptability of downstream demand and the trend of international crude oil will continue to affect the late trend of PTA

today, after the overnight surge in crude oil, PTA opened high and went low, and the upward momentum has weakened. It is recommended that you should not plug and unplug the guide line of the load sensor directly: be cautious with multiple orders

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